Anything can happen at ADCC, which makes Las Vegas the perfect place to host the most anticipated and talent-heavy iteration of the 24-year old tournament. With five male divisions packed with 16 competitors each, and two more loaded with eight decorated female grapplers, there’s plenty of betting action for this mega event.

Online betting sites have released odds for each of the athletes to win in each of the seven divisions. From the division favorites to the likely 16-seeds, anyone has a chance. Here’s our analysis on the safest bets, the most undervalued athletes, and the sleeper picks of each category.

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Superfight: Andre Galvao vs Gordon Ryan

Gordon Ryan -500 vs Andre Galvao +385

Over 15min -255

Under 15min +210

Ryan by Submission -185

Ryan by Decision +100

Galvao by Submission +800

Galvao by Decision +500

Men 66kg

The lightest male category at ADCC is without a returning champion. Garry Tonon is the betting favorite, cutting down from 77kg for the first time in his fifth try for ADCC gold. He’s now among the veterans of the division, fending off a class of hungry newcomers. The ADCC 2019 runner up at 66kg, Kennedy Maciel, is also among the favorites to win; and online bookies are offering a $140 reward on a $100 bet if Maciel takes gold in his second try.

Maciel has looked hot and cold in recent months, and Tonon’s drastic cut to 66kg raises questions — will he be able to sustain his famous pace while maintaining a reduced body weight for several days?

Still, Tonon may be the safe bet. He has more experience in the ADCC ruleset than most of the division combined, and is training in a New Wave Jiu-Jitsu room which will bring seven athletes to the tournament, making it one of the most well-represented teams in the tournament.

On the other hand, Ethan Crelinsten is highly underrated at +1000. An ADCC 2017 veteran, Crelinsten’s attack rate, sharp wrestling and heavy top game leave him primed for this ruleset. He, too, has trained in a well-represented room at B-Team, and could be a great value pick for betters.

Ruan Alvarenga may be the sleeper of the division. He has seldom competed since his ADCC debut in 2019, but there, he nearly defeated Maciel before falling victim to a triangle. Alvarenga’s ability to win is an unknown factor, but judging by his reputation, he’s a worthwhile gamble at +900.

• Garry Tonon +135
• Kennedy Maciel +140
• Cole Abate +250 
• Fabricio Andrey +350
• Diogo Reis +400
• Diego Oliveira +450
• Ashley Williams +600
• Gabriel Souza +600 
• Keith Krikorian +700
• Josh Cisneros +800
• Ruan Alvarenga +900 
• AJ Agazarm +1000
• Ethan Crelinsten +1000 
• Geo Martinez +1500
• Jeremy Skinner +2000
• Sam McNally +2500

Men 77kg

Never bet against a man on a heater. And JT Torres is on the streak of a lifetime. With back to back golds at ADCC 2017 and 2019, and looking to become the first-ever American to win three consecutive in the same division, JT Torres is an obvious safe bet in the 77kg category.

Mica Galvao also deserves some consideration here with a +160 value. But while he’s defeated many in his division in competition, his magnificent run at the ADCC South American Trials did little to demonstrate what he can do in the ADCC ruleset against master tacticians.

At +500, Nicky Ryan may be the most undervalued of the 77kg field. The two-time ADCC veteran has shown tremendous growth, both physically and technically, since his last try at ADCC 2019, building a formidable wrestling game which could carry him to contention in the final rounds of the division.

Tommy Langaker is a huge risk in betting terms, but at +1000, he could be a sleeper pick. The Norwegian has only had a few no-gi grappling matches in recent years, but he’s appeared dialed in. He’s a longshot in a division with Torres, Galvao, Ryan, Kade Ruotolo and the rest, but the payout potential is tenfold if he wins Norway’s second-ever ADCC gold.

• JT Torres +125
• Mica Galvao +160
• Kade Ruotolo +175
• Dante Leon +350
• Nicky Ryan +500
• Renato Canuto +600
• Roberto Jimenez +600
• Davi Ramos +700
• William Tackett +700
• Andy Varela +750
• PJ Barch +800
• Lachlan Giles +850
• Tommy Langaker +1000
• Oliver Taza +1250
• Magid Hage +2000
• Kenta Iwamoto +2500

Men 88kg

Matheus Diniz appeared an immovable object in his ADCC gold medal debut performance in 2019, making it hard to bet against him in 2021. Diniz’ heavy style is perfect for ADCC; he’s the betting favorite, and the safest bet at 88kg.

Tye Ruotolo has great potential, but will be somewhat undersized in this division. With +185 odds, he’s a risky bet.

Pedro Marinho, on the other hand, appears undervalued at +350. Like Diniz, Marinho is a rock. He seems capable of dictating when any of his matchups go to the ground, a valuable skill at ADCC. Marinho would be a worthwhile bet in this category.

Izaak Michell could be a great sleeper pick at +550. Michell hasn’t been tested against anyone in this division, making him entirely unknown. But that could work to his benefit — and the benefit of betters willing to roll the dice on the Australian in his ADCC debut.

• Matheus Diniz +125 
• Lucas Barbosa +160 
• Tye Ruotolo +185
• Pedro Marinho +350
• Mason Fowler +400
• Giancarlo Bodoni +550
• Izaak Michell +550 
• Vagner Rocha +600
• Xande Ribeiro +700
• Josh Hinger +800
• Jacob Rodriguez +1000
• Isaque Bahiense +1000
• Eoghan O’Flanagan +2000
• Alexandre De Jesus +2500
• Santeri Ilius +2500
• Roberto Dib Frias +2500

Men 99kg

There’s no real safe pick at 99kg. It’s a tossup between Kaynan Duarte, valued at +130, and Craig Jones, valued at +180. Duarte has submitted Jones in the past, and looks unbeatable when he’s on. But Jones’ development, and his consistent movement toward the top of the podium over the last two iterations of ADCC makes it hard to pick against him.

Nicholas Meregali, though still somewhat untested in his no-gi experiment, could be the most undervalued pick in this division at +450. He’s shown promise in his wrestling, and is a submission machine when he gets on top. At his current value, there’s a ton of upside in a bet on the three-time IBJJF World Champ.

Luke Griffith is a great sleeper pick here. Training alongside Meregali at New Wave, Griffith has impressed at every turn in 2022. He’s a relative unknown, and therefore, a risk. But at +750, he’s worthy of betting consideration.

• Kaynan Duarte +130 
• Yuri Simoes +170
• Craig Jones +180 
• Nicholas Meregali +450 
• Vinicius Ferreira +500
• Rafael Lovato Jr +600
• Paul Ardilla +650
• Patrick Gaudio +650
• Devhonte Johnson +650
• Elder Cruz +700
• Luke Griffith +750 
• Kyle Boehm +1000
• Joao Costa +2000
• Henrique Ceconi +2500
• Perttu Tepponen +2500
• Owen Livesey +2500

Men +99kg

Of all 96 athletes, Gordon Ryan is the only athlete with a minus sign next to his odds. The reasons may be obvious: his nearly 60-match win streak coincides closely with his submission streak. The three-time ADCC champion offers a menial payout of $25 on a successful $100 bet, but he remains the safest bet of any athlete competing at ADCC 2022.

Victor Hugo may be the sleeper pick of the bunch at +600. His ADCC run was cut short by Buchecha in 2019, but the Man Mountain has shone since then, earning his black belt and securing two IBJJF Worlds titles in that time. He hasn’t yet had a run-in with Ryan, leaving a window with a substantial potential payout for those unwilling to bet on Gordon at -400.

• Gordon Ryan -400
• Felipe Pena +300
• Nick Rodriguez +400
• Roberto Abreu +500
• Joao Gabriel +550
• Victor Hugo +600 
• Vinny Magalhaes +700
• Max Gimenez +800
• John Hansen +800
• Roosevelt Sousa +900
• Haisam Rida +1000
• Daniel Manasoiu +1000
• Damon Ramos +1250
• Orlando Sanchez +1500
• Heikki Jussila +2500
• Josh Saunders +2500

Women -60kg

Betters would be wise to stay away from the top of the pack, and take a gamble in this division. Betting favorite Bianca Basilio is a good bet, but not necessarily a safe one. Ffion Davies and Beatriz Mesquita are significant threats to her reign, as she is a threat to their ADCC gold aspirations.

Mesquita, however, appears a bit undervalued here at +300. The 2017 ADCC gold medalist could have her day, and beters would be wise to see her generous odds of +300 as a call to action.

Briana Ste-Marie and Mayssa Bastos each deserve consideration as division sleepers. Ste-Marie defeated 11 opponents to earn her right to compete at ADCC, and has impressed at every turn, showing off the perfectly well-rounded game deserving of ADCC gold.

Bastos, on the other hand, will be drastically undersized for the division, but she has not lost a no-gi match in her black belt career, making her an enticing risk bet at +400.

• Bianca Basilio +120
• Ffion Davies +140
• Bia Mesquita +300
• Brianna Ste-Marie +300
• Mayssa Bastos +400
• Elvira Karppinen +2000
• Adele Fornarino +2000
• Julia Maele +2000

Women +60kg

Gabi Garcia is the most successful female competitor ever to take the ADCC mats, but given her performance record over the past year, and the pack of hungry newcomers awaiting her, the +120 odds are a tough sell.

On the other hand, Rafaela Guedes appears a shining safe bet in the +60kg category with +145 odds. Training in a room loaded with ADCC-bound competitors at Atos, the Tezos WNO heavyweight champ has the wrestling, the submission skills, and the grit to take ADCC gold in her debut.

Kendall Reusing may be slightly undervalued at +325. While she has losses to both Garcia and Guedes in the last three years, she has improved drastically in that time. And if she relies on her wrestling talents, it could pay off for savvy betters.

Amy Campo is the sleeper of the division at +375. The rookie black belt made it to the finals of both North American Trials, losing to Reusing in the first and winning the second. With a favorable bracket, Campo could climb far in this division, and may upset the pack.

Elisabeth Clay could also be considered a sleeper pick, and a valuable one at that. The +1000 last minute invitee has defeated many of the women in this division in her rise to fame. She’s struggled against Garcia and Guedes recently, but has introduced new elements into her game which could upset her division rivals. With a tenfold upside, a bet on Clay could be worth the risk.

• Gabi Garcia +120
• Rafaela Guedes +145
• Kendall Reusing +325
• Amy Campo +375
• Elizabeth Clay +1000
• Giovanna Jara +1500
• Eleftheria Christodolou +2000
• Nikki Lloyd-Griffiths +2000