There are no champions returning to the -99kg division at ADCC 2022, leaving the division open for the taking. Still, top performers from several weight categories in years past have been invited to compete in this weight division in the most highly anticipated grappling event of all time.

The no.1 seed should be Kaynan Duarte, the ADCC 2019 +99kg champion, who has dropped down in weight for his third appearance at the World Championships. Duarte is a frontrunner, and the betting favorite in the division.

If ADCC organizers weigh previous medals heavily in their seeding — as they have in previous years — Yuri Simoes may be the no.2 seed. The two-time ADCC champion won gold at -99kg in 2017, one season after taking gold at 88kg.

Prior year silver medalists should also earn high favor in the division seeding, and there are three of them in this division.

Vinicius "Trator" Ferreira took silver in the -99kg category in 2019, losing in the final to Gordon Ryan. At 88kg in 2019, Craig Jones took silver behind Matheus Diniz. These two are the likely three and four seeds, respectively, rounding out the four pillars of this 16-man bracket.

Rafael Lovato Jr. also deserves a high seed; the ADCC 2015 silver medalist is returning for his seventh appearance at ADCC. He has placed fourth on three occasions in addition to his second place finish.

But he may be seeded one spot behind Nicholas Meregali, the three-time IBJJF World Champion in the gi, who recently defeated him in a 15-minute no-gi bout at Tezos WNO.

While Meregali is new to gi competition, he has made waves under the instruction of John Danaher. His invitation to ADCC came before his first career no-gi bout in March of 2022. He’s gone 3-0 since, with two submission victories.

The remainder of the seeds fall relatively neatly into place.

Patrick Gaudio and Paul Ardila-Ibarra are the only remaining ADCC veterans in the -99kg roster. Gaudio received an invite after going 2-2 in his ADCC debut in 2019, while Ardila won trials for a third time to earn his fourth appearance at ADCC. They could be considered the seven and eight seeds, although it’s tough to tell who would get the priority.

Then, here are the eight anchors of the division:

We can work backwards from there. The no.16 seed is likely to go to Owen Livesey, a last minute replacement who took second behind Luke Griffith at the 2nd ADCC European Trials. Livesey, a decorated judoka, would be a fun matchup for Kaynan Duarte in the opening bout.

Griffith, who defeated Livesey, might otherwise have taken the 15 seed, but he’ll be bound to no.13, as he is required to face his teammate, Meregali, if he advances to the second round. If this bracket plays out, that would pit Craig Jones against back to back New Wave Jiu-Jitsu representatives if he is victorious in his first match.

Kyle Boehm has a likely claim to the no.9 seed, as he won the ADCC West Coast Trails — the deepest ADCC Trials of any region to date — albeit, in the +99kg division.

Devhonte Johnson, who medaled in both North American Trials in 2022, may be the best candidate for the no.10 seed.

The remaining four athletes are difficult to split objectively. Joao Costa defeated Henrique Ceconni in the 1st South American Trials, and Ceconi went on to win the 2nd South American Trails; therefore; Costa is almost certain to be seeded ahead of his Brazilian countryman.

But will either of them be seeded ahead of Elder Cruz, who took silver at the 88kg East Coast Trails before taking bronze in the -99kg category in the West Coast Trails?

Given Cruz’ momentum, and his participation in the deeper trails events, he may have earned priority.

And what about Perttu Tepponen, the first -99kg athlete to qualify in the 2021-2022 ADCC season? Tepponen is an ADCC veteran, who qualified for ADCC 2019, drawing and losing to Lucas Barbosa that year.

It’s within the realm of possibility that the two-time qualifier takes precedence, putting Costa, Ceconi, and Cruz as the 13, 14, and 15 seeds in some order. 

Of course, the brackets below are only speculation; but here’s our best guess for what to expect at -99kg.