The ADCC 2022 World Championships are, to our rampant excitement, just one month away. All 97 athletes have been named to the six divisions and the singular historic superfight. But the brackets have not yet been revealed.

Throughout the next few weeks, we’ll be analyzing the roster of each division to try to make sense of some likely seeding permutations, and to make our best guess how each of these hypothetical brackets will play out.

NOTE: the brackets below are pure speculation of the FloGrappling staff, and have not been corroborated by ADCC officials.

The 66 kg division is among the hardest brackets to accurately seed. Many of the trials winners have significant victories over invitees, and even ADCC veterans on the roster. And the middle of the field of the lightest male division is loaded with athletes whose seeds are nearly interchangeable.

Moreover, the bracket is marred with three pairs of athletes representing the same team; the teammates will be required to share the same corner of the bracket, as teammates must compete no later than the second round of ADCC.

Still, there are some near certainties in this division, which allow some degree of foresight into the rest of the bracket.

Kennedy Maciel will almost certainly hold the no.1 seed headed into the 2022 ADCC World Championships. He took silver at ADCC 2019, losing by narrow margin to the now-retired Augusto “Tanquinho” Mendes.

Maciel will be bound to Ruan Alvarenga, an Alliance teammate who nearly upset Maciel in the second round in 2019, before falling into a last ditch triangle.

Maciel and Alvarenga are destined to rematch in the quarterfinal at the upcoming ADCC; and both men are likely to have favorable first-round matchups. It’s probable that Maciel’s first opponent will be Oceania & Asia Trials winner Jeremy Skinner, while Alvarenga may have an opponent from the middle of the division.

Maciel and Alvarenga account for two of the seven ADCC veterans named to the 66 kg category this year. Two more of them make for obvious top seeds. AJ Agazarm, the 2017 ADCC runner up at 66 kg, and Garry Tonon, the 2019 ADCC bronze medalist at 77 kg, each have a viable claim to the no.2 and no.3 seeds.

It’s not certain that any of the remaining three ADCC veterans will take the four-seed. It’s not likely that that spot will go to Kieth Krikorian, for example, as he lost at the East Coast trials to Cole Abate. Like Krikorian, multiple-time ADCC competitor Geo Martinez is likely to find himself in the middle of the pack. Despite his three career victories at the World Championships, his success rate in competition has been fading.

Ethan Crelinsten has a legitimate claim to the fourth seed; the two-time trials winner won his first round match at ADCC 2017 before losing a tightly contested match to Agazarm.

No matter which athletes receive those coveted top seeds, they will likely be clustered among the 10th Planet and Fight Sports representatives.

Krikorian and Martinez will be placed together in one quadrant of the bracket, while Fabricio Andrey and Diogo Reis will also be paired together to meet in a quarterfinal.

It’s possible for these four athletes to be clumped together in one corner of the division; but it’s unlikely, as that would put three trials winners in one section.

Outside of those facts, it’s impossible to predict this bracket with any degree of certainty.

It’s unlikely that Cole Abate will be bunched in with the 10th Planet pair, for example, as he has recent victories over each of them. It’s equally unlikely that Diego “Pato” Oliveira will end up in the same corner as either Joshua Cisneros or Gabriel Sousa, as he has competed against each of them four or more times over the last few years. 

Just as the ADCC organizers ensure that teammates compete by the quarterfinals, organizers try to make new matchups rather than set rematches. Oftentimes it can’t be avoided; Alvarenga and Maciel, for example, will be bound to match up again.

Here is our best guess at the bracket:

AJ Agazarm and Garry Tonon could swap positions in this scenario depending on seeding. Either way, there are several incredible potential matchups here. Tonon could be on track to face Pato or Keith Krikorian, both of whom would make for mega stylistic matchups against the always-moving Tonon.

Cole Abate vs Diogo Reis would be an amazing pairing, pitting two young ADCC newcomers against each other first.

Josh Cisneros could also find two challenging but intriguing matchups here: first, the somewhat unknown but undeniably talented Alvarenga, then Kennedy Maciel, against whom he’s 1-1.

Ultimately, there’s no bad way for the ADCC officials to design this bracket. There are no scrubs in the divisions. Even the lowest seeds in the division have obvious upset potential.

One of the 16 men in this bracket will become a first-time ADCC champion. Nine of them have the chance to win in their ADCC debut year. And Cole Abate, for one, has the chance to become the youngest champion in ADCC history. The stakes couldn’t be higher at ADCC 2022, and it’s just a few weeks away.