BJJ Stars

Official FloGrappling Predictions: BJJ Stars

Official FloGrappling Predictions: BJJ Stars

The FloGrappling staff has crunched the numbers and weighed in with their picks for the top 4 matches on the card!

Jul 25, 2020 by Chase Smith
Official FloGrappling Predictions: BJJ Stars
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For the very first time FloGrappling subscribers in the USA, Canada, and Mexico will be able to watch BJJ Stars. 

This event features some of the best talents from Brazil, and they've put together a phenomenal card of 15 matches.  As always, the FloGrappling staff has crunched the numbers and weighed in with their picks for the top 4 matches on the card!

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Main Event: Kaynan Duarte vs Joao Gabriel Rocha


Reid:If his first year at black belt was any indication, Kaynan Duarte could go down as one of the greatest grapplers of all time. With wins over Buchecha, Nicky Rod, Nicholas Meregali, Erberth Santos and Leandro Lo, just to name a few, Kaynan’s first year at black belt was nothing short of amazing. 

That’s why you may be surprised to hear that one of his lone defeats from 2019 came from the big man, Joao Gabriel Rocha. 

Known as one of the best ultra heavyweights in the world JGR is capable of defeating anyone he shares the mats with. Right after the IBJJF World Championships these two split matches at the Moscow Grand Slam. Which makes this match extra exciting, they have a score to settle. 

It’s almost impossible to pick against Kaynan here, he’s looked way too dominant over the best competition in the world. Joao is talented enough to take the win here but he’s been inactive the last year dealing with injuries so I anticipate he’ll be a little sluggish. That on top of Joao being a late replacement has all signs pointing to an impressive win for the Atos representative. 

Prediction: Kaynan Duarte via guillotine 


Michael: These have split their only two matches, but those took place at the same tournament a few weeks after Kaynan received his black belt. 

Since then Kaynan has gone on to win everything, racking up a ton of experience. Kaynan amazingly only has 25 less matches than Joao Gabriel, despite receiving his black belt six years later. 

Joao Gabriel is a monster of a man who typically only gets stopped by Buchecha, but Kaynan is something special. 

I think we see Kaynan play smart and strategically, hitting a sweep to take the match 2-0 similar to his Rodolfo match.


 Hywel:  Technically, I think Kaynan is considered the smoother of the two. He can invert, has a great guard and passes well, He's versatile with his submissions and hard to score on. 

Rocha, on the other hand, is really good at a few things. 

Look for his takedowns, back takes and collar chokes. Kaynan has had more consistent results these last two years, Rocha's training situation isn't as optimal and I feel that Duarte going to be a little better prepared for this match. 

Prediction: Duarte via points 

Riccardo: So,  this is a very interesting match up. Especially since we have not seen either of these two compete in the last few months. 

I know that they are 1-1. JGR has the edge in experience but Kaynan has the mental edge here winning one of those 2 matches by submission. Very tough match, but I feel like this one is Kaynans to win. 

I got  Kaynan Duarte to win this match. 


Chase: The two have split a pair of wins, but you have to think that Kaynan Duarte's tactics and technique have evolved dramatically since last summer through sheer work rate and determination. 

I love Joao Gabriel Rocha's game and intensity, but Duarte has an innate ability to bring the pacing of a match into his world and find the openings he needs to get the win.

I see Duarte taking the win via points. 

Co-Main: Leandro Lo vs Lucas Hulk Barbosa


Reid: Lucas Barbosa vs Leandro Lo might be my personal most anticipated matchup of the night (besides Charles Do Bronx vs Gabriel Rollo). 

Both these two are tactically the best in the game so I’m fully expecting a nail-biting match that goes back and forth until the bitter end. 

Looking at their last matchup from the Pans absolute division final you can see both competitors were a little shy to pull the trigger and it ended up being largely a stalemated match. 

It’s possible we could see something similar but because of their history I think each guy will be trying to score first and score quick. Barbosa and Lo have some of the best scrambles when defending score attempts so I’m hoping these two open up and mix it up a little more than last time. 

Although Hulk got the win the first time around I’m picking Leandro to even the score. It’s not often he loses to the same opponent twice and I think he’ll have the recipe to beat Hulk this time around. 

Prediction: Leandro Lo via points.

Michael:  A rematch from the 2019 Pans finals, where Hulk took out Lo. 

Leandro has had issues with cardio over the last couple of years and seems unprepared at times, but Hulk will also step straight out of Carnival into a match on a moment's notice. I think we are going to see cardio being the deciding factor here, if Leandro shows up in shape he can beat anyone. 

I'm going with Leandro coming back rejuvenated after his new training situation with Erberth in Sao Paulo, squeaking out a win by two points or an advantage, but always looking in control, in classic Leandro Lo style.


 Hywel: Like Rafael Lovato Jr. said in his preview for us, I see them canceling each other out much like in the final of the 2019 Pan absolute division. 

Lo is so tough to score on, but so is Hulk. I struggle to see how either guy has an edge. I think Lo looks better than ever, and it'll be interesting to see the results of his training with Erberth Santos and the crazy crew they put together in Sao Paulo. 

Hulk's recent domination on the Fight to Win stage shows he's as sharp as ever in the gi. 

Prediction: Barbosa via decision after a draw on points. 


Riccardo: So great to see Leandro Lo back in action. Looks like he has been training with beasts like Erberth Santos and even Buchecha!

So, a properly prepared Leandro is a dangerous Leandro. BUT...if the Hulk who has been active these last months, the one who submitted Lovato, shows up for this match. I don't think Leandro can deal with it. 

I got Lucas Hulk Barbosa winning this one.

Chase: It's tough to find a bigger Leandro Lo fan than me – what's not to love about his aggressive, no holds barred style that's led him amasses an incredible amount of titles over his storied career. 

He's got swagger, is creative, and slightly unhinged... but unfortunately, Leandro's also looked a little out of step since 2019.  

Meanwhile, the Hulk has been on fire all of 2020, submitting some of the biggest names in the game and keeping up an extremely high work rate despite the unpredictable landscape we live in.

But here's the thing: this is a super fight. We're used to watching Leandro battle his way through huge brackets filled with the world's elite, all aiming at taking the crown from his head.  This format suits him perfectly as he no doubt has the cardio and desire to win a 10-minute match, and I think we may see a return to form by the legendary fighter.

Prediction: Leandro Lo via points. 

  Erberth Santos vs Patrick Gaudio


Reid: Erberth Santos is finally allowed back onto the BJJ Stars mats and he’ll be taking on the perennial contender Patrick Gaudio in a hotly anticipated matchup. 

Gaudio is as tough as they come, I always think back to his 2018 IBJJF Worlds match with the legend Romulo Barral. 

Despite giving up a plethora of points and fighting through some brutal cross choke attempts Gaudio came back to win the match and electrify the crowd at the Long Beach Pyramid. No matter how tough it gets Gaudio is always searching for a way to win. 

Erberth on the other hand doesn’t have the same perseverance but does have the explosive finishing power to take out any black belt. 

His kneebars are lethal but Erberth has always had trouble facing adversity and even if his able to control Gaudio early it’s likely he’ll fade as the match progresses. It might look promising for Erberth early but expect Gaudio to battle back and take the win. 

Prediction: Patrick Gaudio via triangle.

Michael: It's no secret that Erberth has never really gotten along with members of GFTeam, and while Patrick has left GFT for Dream Art I'm sure there is still some of that left over. 

This is a matchup of two intimidating figures, and also two wild tattoos, with Erbeths chest piece of an AK-47 and Gaudio's giant tattoo of his daughter's name on the side of his head. I think we see Erberth playing from top against Patrick's slick guard. 

When Erberth was motivated at TLI and Atos he was unstoppable, maybe his newfound situation with Leandro Lo has him focused. After some recent performances though, it is hard to bet on Erberth. 

I think Patrick sweeps to win 2-0, maybe even 5-0 with a pass. Beware of Erberths leg attacks though.

 Hywel: Heart says Erberth, head says Gaudio. 

Whenever I think "Erberth is back" something crazy happens and he underperforms. Gaudio is a handful for anybody, capable of beating the best in the world when he's "on". 

It really depends which version of each grappler turns up– if Gaudio is focused and puts the pressure on Erberth, I see him winning. If Erberth is able to establish dominance in the match, he could run away with it. 

Prediction: Erberth via submission .

Riccardo:  So, I am a big Erberth Santos fan. But, I have not seen him compete in quite a while. And he is very unpredictable. 

Whereas with Patrick Gaudio, you know he always brings it.  I actually think the new change of teams might help Patrick open up his game and showcase the best of his skills. 

I got Patrick Gaudio winning this match. 


Chase: Erberth Santos is one of jiu-jitsu's most enigmatic and perplexing figures. A killer at times, seemingly quitter at others, nobody is really sure which Erberth is going to show up to competitor on any given day.

So, the question remains, which Erberth will come out to play at BJJ stars? 

Patrick Gaudio, on the other hand, is patently reliable – he always brings the fight and rarely has a bad showing in competition.  I think the Guadio's mental fortitude will win out in this match, and he'll be able to overcome early adversity from Erberht.

Prediction: Gaudio via points.

Anna Rodrigues vs Bianca Basilio


Reid: Dream Art’s promising female black belt Ana Rodriguez has been on a roll since earner her black belt in September 2019 but this will surely be the biggest test of her young career.

After winning the ADCC World Championships late last year Bianca has been somewhat quiet when it comes to competition. It might be a closer match than I’m expecting but Bianca is proven to be one of the best in the world and Ana will have a tough climb ahead of her to get the win. 

Prediction: Bianca Basilio via ankle lock.


Michael: Hard one for me to pick a winner here, as I worked a lot with both of these girls when I lived in Brazil and they are genuinely great people. 

On the mat they are savages though, with Bianca smiling ear to ear as she breaks legs around the world and Ana having some tenacious passing.

 "A-Rod" would be a black belt world champion in her first year if it weren't for covid in my opinion, already holding wins over Basilio, Mayssa Bastos, Amanda Canuto, Talita Alencar and more. Bia is always a threat with her "Basilio Botinha" and can finish anyone. 

I see Ana taking control with her lapel game and winning on points.


 Hywel: Rodrigues is one of the best up and comers at black belt, she's got a killer berimbolo and is a very, very good guard player. Basilio's got the edge when it comes to experience and I see her using her size advantage to shut down Ana's guard before smashing on of of her famous footlocks. 

Prediction: Basilio via straight ankle lock.

Riccardo:  Very tough one to call. A-Rod vs the Basilio Botinha. A-Rod has been doing SO GOOD this last year.  But Bianca is just on another level. 

I am such a huge fan of both of these competitors and I will say now  that A-Rod has all the tools to be one of the greatest competitors but I think Bianca has the experience to win this, 

I got Bianca Basilio winning this match. 

Chase: This is a rematch from the 2019 Abu Dhabi World Pro – it was a tightly contested out with Basilio taking the win 2-0.  Since then Rodrigues has gone on to beat some of the very best black belts in the game, and I think her move to dream art will be paying dividends this time around.


Prediction: Ana Rodrigues via points.