Official FloGrappling Predictions: Fight To Win 147
Official FloGrappling Predictions: Fight To Win 147
This weekend's edition features several generational clashes that pit battle-seasoned veterans against some of the sport's most exciting prospects
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This weekend's edition features several generational clashes that pit battle-seasoned veterans against some of the sport's most exciting prospects. The main event features Manuel Ribamar of RPBJJ and Jonatha Alves from AOJ.
Watch Fight To Win 147 LIVE July 17 On FloGrappling
Main Event: Johnatha Alves vs Manuel Ribamar
Reid: An unexpected main event but regardless of the matchup between Johnatha Alves and Manuel Ribamar is a can’t-miss fight! Usually these two are in very different weight classes but with the pandemic throwing everything out of whack, we are graced with a mind-boggling matchup.
We haven’t seen Johnatha compete in quite some time now but it’s no secret anymore the level of technique he possesses. A brown belt world champion, Johnatha was my pick in early 2020 to be an IBJJF World Champion his first year at black belt. Maybe in a corona-free parallel universe that happened, maybe not. Regardless Manuel Ribamar marks a very interesting challenge for the AOJ newcomer.
I’m expecting to see Ribamar on top trying to pass the inverting guard of Alves for the beginning part of the match. Although I think Ribamar’s berimbolo defense is better than most, the inversion skills of Johnatha have proven to work on even elite competition. At some point, Johnatha will find the back and finish from there.
Prediction: Johnatha Alves def. Manuel Ribamar via RNC
Michael: Great matchup, one of the best young lightweights going against the current European medium-heavyweight champion.
Both guys are great on top and bottom, but Ribamar should have a considerable size advantage for this one. As we've seen, Johnatha can berimbolo anyone, but I think Riba's game is a little more diverse at this point and his experience carries him to a referee decision.
Hywel: Alves is one of the best young berimbolo exponents, but I feel that if anybody is well prepared to deal with this it'll be Ribmar, who has trained with the Miyao brothers since they were colored belts.
I will point to Ribamar's treatment of the amazing guard player Espen Mathiesen at 2020 Euros for a possible preview of how this match might go, but I don't think Ribamar has quite the same momentum that he did back in January.
I see this being close, but I'm leaning toward Riba by decision thanks to his understanding of the rules.
Prediction: Manuel Ribamar via decision
Riccardo: So first of all, LOVE THIS MATCH!
Very cool to see Johnatha accepting such a HUGE CHALLENGE as Ribimar is presenting.
Not only technically, but there is also a strength and size advantage working for Ribamar in this match. Ribimar is one of the world's best competitors right now. Such a technical style and can outplay any competitor at their own game. And, he has a ton of experience at Fight To Win.
But, if the Johnatha that came to Spyder who submitted the current world champion Jamil Hill in under a minute, shows up to this match...I think he wins it. I've been hearing about and following Johnatha for a few years now, and have all the confidence he can be the next big thing in our sport.
I see Johnatha shocking the world and winning this match by decision.
Chase: Another unique matchup from Fight To Win that we'd never see on the traditional circuit, this match pits two phenomena athletes with very different approaches against one another.
Johnatha Alves is a breimbolo machine – everybody knows it, but few can stop it. However, Ribamar has literally lived and trained with two of the best berimbolo artists in the World: Paulo and Joao Miyao – so I'm feeling pretty good about his chances of shutting down the attack.
Ribarmar's top game is sorely underappreciated – he has incredible pressure for a middleweight and some of the heaviest hips in the game. I think we'll see him shutdown Johnatha's inversions and begin to push the tempo of the match in his favor.
Prediction: Ribamar via decision.
Co-Main Event: Rafael Lovato Jr. vs Helton Junior
Reid: This card also marks the return of American grappling legend Rafael Lovato Jr. in his first match back on the big stage since his submission loss to Lucas Barbosa back in June.
It’s not often we see Rafael Lovato on the losing end, in fact it was astonishing to most of us. However, Lovato is a true champion in every sense of the word. And like any true champion, he went back to the training room and trained even harder and even smarter for this match.
Helton Jose is a great opponent with real accolades but I think this match will be all Lovato. He’s eager to prove he’s still capable of competing at the highest level in grappling and I think he puts an exclamation mark on things come Friday night.
Prediction: Rafael Lovato Jr def. Helton Jose Jr via guillotine
Michael: Most people probably don't know who Helton is, but he is certainly no joke, with multiple wins over Jackson Souza and Adam Wardzinski in his career.
Helton is not on the best streak, though, losing six of his last 10 matches. He has a tall task on Friday, going head-to-head with the veteran and former F2W champion Rafael Lovato Jr.
I think this one plays out similar to Lovato vs Maidana, with Lovato getting the pass from half guard and finishing the fight with a choke from mount.
Hywel: Lovato Jr. told me that he felt an insane amount of pressure in his match with Lucas Barbosa at Fight to Win 144, and that weight has been taken off his shoulders now he's lost – he says he can move forward and not second-guess himself or worry too much about getting caught.
So I see Lovato Jr. coming out hard, setting the pace and getting the tap.
Prediction: Lovato Jr. via cross collar choke from mount
Riccardo: Helton Jr has a very very unorthodox game. He is a submission hunter that can catch most competitors if they are not crossing their T's and dotting those I's....but Lovato is not most competitors. He is coming off a loss and a motivated and angry Lovato is a nightmare for anyone!
I got Lovato winning by decision in this match.
Chase: Rafael Lovato Jr. really, really hates losing.
Not that it happens often, but it should be noted that he literally postponed a planned vacation scheduled for after Fight To Win 145 because of his desire to get back in the winner's circle before taking some much deserved time off.
That should make Helton Junior nervous.
I'm taking Lovato Jr. By cross collar.
Must Watch: Luiza Monteiro vs Elisabeth Clay
Reid: Fight to Win 147 also brings a big step up in competition for the now local training Texan, Elisabeth Clay. She will be taking on the multiple-time world champion and Atos Jiu-Jitsu representative Luiza Monteiro.
Clay has been steadily climbing the latter and impressing more and more with her victories but I don’t think it’s been clear just how big of a step up this actually is. Luiza is one of the best female competitors ever and is a fierce grappler training with one of the best teams in the world.
On top of her flawless technique though Clay is young and fearless which will take her far but I think she might have bitten off more than she can chew at this stage.
Prediction: Luiza Monteiro def Elisabeth Clay via triangle
Michael: Elizabeth Clay vs Luiza Monteiro is a very intriguing no-gi match.
Monteiro is a multiple-time world champion in both the gi and no-gi in the IBJJF, but Clay is on a tear and comes in with some momentum.
I think we see Clay attacking the legs throughout and coming away with a referee decision based on higher output of submission attacks.
Hywel: This is a tricky one to call, mostly because I’ve never really seen Luiza do no-gi. She’s a two-time IBJJF World champ as a black belt in the gi, while Elisabeth Clay is “only” a brown belt.
But Clay will have 10lbs on Monteiro, and she won the ADCC Trials back when she was only 15 years of age. She took double gold as a brown belt at the World No-Gi Championships last year, winning eight matches all via submission.
Tough one to call, but I’m going to go with Clay here. Luiza has got good leg locks, but I’ve never seen her with heel hooks and we recently say Clay beat black belt Chelsah Lyons with a nasty leg lock.
Prediction: Clay via heel hook.
Riccardo: Another great match with FOTN potential. Luiza Monteiro has a TON of experience but I have not seen her fight no-gi.
Whereas in contrast, Elisabeth Clay has been tearing up the no-gi scene for a while. I truly think thay Clay has potential to be the next big thing in women's jiu-jitsu, but to beat Luiza Monteiro....I can't bet on that one just yet.
I got Luiza winning this by decision.
Chase: This match is a tricky one to call – Luiza Monteiro is a three-time No-Gi World Champ, but her last title was secure in 2014.
Since then she's focused almost exclusively on the gi, and while she's been incredibly successful in that avenue as well (two-time world champ among other accolades), a submission grappling match with Elisabeth Clay is a serious challenge to take on for her first time back.
For her part, Elisabeth Clay is a surging brown belt talent; the youngest person to ever qualify for ADCC (15), she is quite at home in the leglock game and will likely look to exploit her familiarity with the format there.
Prediction: Elisabeth Clay by decision.