We are less than a week out of ADCC, and the anticipation is reaching a boiling point. The "Olympics of Grappling” is almost upon us and fans, athletes, and most certainly the FloGrappling team are speculating what the brackets might end up looking like. As we will not know the brackets until the day before the event, much time has been spent at the FloSports HQ drawing up seeds and potential brackets.

I will go through here how I would seed the 66kg division being seeded. Keep in mind that this has nothing at all to do with how they will really be seeded, it is all just speculation.

The criteria I am looking at is as follows:

• Recent ADCC success
• Recent success at other major no-gi events
• ADCC success pre-2017 
• Gi world champions
• Trials results and older no-gi success

Using head-to-head, method of victory, and just personal opinion for tie-breakers and weighing certain accomplishments against others. Let’s get started, here is how I have them seeded:

1. Paulo Miyao
2. Gianni Grippo
3. Augusto Mendes
4. Pablo Mantovani
5. Bruno Frazatto
6. Nicky Ryan
7. Kennedy Maciel
8. Matheus Gabriel
9. Jamil Hill-Taylor
10. Geo Martinez
11. Ruan Alvarenga
12. Thomas Halpin
13. Kenta Iwamoto
14. Keith Krikorian
15. Richard Alarcon
16. Tye Ruotolo

10- Geo Martinez (10th Planet)

Geo is a two-time ADCC vet and made the semifinals in 2015 but has been inconsistent lately. He has already lost to Paulo, Tanquinho, and Frazatto in his two ADCC appearances. Not-so-great performances at Kasai Pro 4 and 6 have me wondering at his chances here. He clearly lacks an advantage over his opponents in the points game; for Geo to go far he needs to take advantage of the first half with no points to sell out for subs. A 10 seed here would have him fighting Kennedy first round, but with the ADCC criteria for placing teammates in the same quarter of the bracket that is impossible with a total of three Alliance and two 10th Planet athletes in at 66kg.

9- Jamil Hill-Taylor (Team Lloyd Irvin)

Jamil is an interesting one for sure, a gi Worlds champ who is known almost exclusively for his gi accomplishments, where he won Worlds at blue, purple, brown, and black belt. Team Lloyd Irvin is typically a strong no-gi team, though, and Jamil recently told us in New York that he’s been competing with heelhooks since he was a teenager in Naga. A no-gi match at Spyder where he looked impressive is, however, his only recent no-gi result. I'm putting him a spot below Matheus based solely on their lone gi head-to-head match.

Watch: Jamil competes No-Gi at Spyder

8- Matheus Gabriel (Checkmat)

The Manaus-born and currently California-based Matheus Gabriel exploded onto the scene in 2019, winning Pans and Worlds in the gi. Normally an IBJJF and gi competitor, he is training under ADCC champ Leo Vieira and should definitely be ready for the ruleset. Matheus is a submission machine: He broke Kennedy’s arm at Pans this year and tapped Marcio Andre in the Worlds final. Matheus only has 14 black belt fights but is riding a nine-match win streak into ADCC. Certainly a first-timer that could surprise us and go all the way in Anaheim. Going with Matheus over Jamil based on his gi world title being more recent and a head-to-head win from Pans. Kennedy put Matheus to sleep at No-Gi Worlds 2018 and gets the nod at number seven, as I hold that no-gi victory in higher regard here than the broken arm at Pans in the gi.

7- Kennedy Maciel (Alliance)

Kennedy is stepping into the division that his father won three times in a row and made the finals twice before that, a run over a decade long at 66kg for Cobrinha. People are gonna go crazy on me for ranking Nicky over Kennedy, but I think based off the time since the fight — plus the fact that Nicky is an ADCC vet and trials winner — he would get the higher seed. Kennedy was the 2018 No-Gi Worlds champ, where he choked fellow 66kg entrant Matheus Gabriel unconscious in the first round. Kennedy is another question mark here, young and inexperienced at ADCC but learning daily from maybe the best ADCC competitor all-time at 66kg.

Watch: 2016 Kennedy vs Nicky superfight

6- Nicky Ryan (Renzo Gracie)

Nicky is definitely the wildcard in this division in my opinion. He is young, coming from probably the best no-gi camp out there, and has been competing against elite competition throughout his teens. Nicky ran through the trials and has a win over Geo Martinez already in his career, and also losses to Paulo Miyao and Kennedy Maciel before the 2017 event. I think it should be expected that he is much improved since the Kennedy and Paulo losses, and could potentially make an incredible run like his brother did at the last ADCC.

Watch: Nicky Ryan's ADCC Trials highlight

5- Bruno Frazatto (Atos)

This will be Bruno’s third appearance at ADCC; he lost to Cobrinha in the 2015 final in Sao Paulo. Bruno is a vet who has won Worlds and Pans in the gi but recently dropped a match to Geo Martinez at Kasai. Being seeded fourth and fifth for Pablo and Bruno would work out perfect for ADCC as being Atos teammates they are supposed to meet in the quarters anyway.

4- Pablo Mantovani (Atos)

Pablo is seeded this high based off his run to the semifinals at ADCC 2017, where he defeated Tanquinho before losing a ref decision to AJ Agazarm in the semis and a 10-0 loss to Paulo for third. Pablo’s results have been up and down since the last ADCC, getting silver and bronze at No-Gi Worlds 2017 and 2018 and silver at No-Gi Pans 2018. The four seed would put Pablo on the same side as Paulo Miyao and possibly meeting him in the semifinals, and Paulo has been a tough matchup for Pablo so far in his career.

Watch: Mantovani defeats Tanquinho at ADCC 2017

3- Augusto “Tanquinho” Mendes (Soul Fighters)

Tanquinho is a legend, world champ gi and no-gi, and an ADCC bronze medalist from 2015. He went down early last time to Pablo Mantovani in the quarters, but has still been active no-gi and looking impressive. A F2W ref decision over Marcelo Mafra plus wins at Kasai over Ethan Crelinstein, Kim Terra, and Frank Rosenthal are some of his recent no-gi performances. The loss to Mantovani haunts him, but I’m seeding Tanquinho over Pablo based off recent results and his track record over his career.

2- Gianni Grippo (Alliance Marcelo Garcia)

Gianni just lost at No-Gi Pans to an opponent that he just choked out no-gi in August, but he is still Gianni Grippo. He was the 2018 No-Gi Worlds and Pans champ with wins in the finals over Marcio Andre by RNC at Worlds and 9-0 over AJ Agazarm at Pans. A points win over Paulo Miyao 3-2 at Kasai Pro 4 seals the deal for Gianni to earn the second seed in my opinion. Had he won the No-Gi Pans featherweight bracket I would have him at No. 1.

Watch: Gianni defeats Paulo at Kasai

1- Paulo Miyao (Cicero Costha/Unity)

Paulo is the only returning medalist from ADCC 2017, where he finished third after losing to Cobrinha in the semis. Going into No-Gi Pans he was ranked second in the FloGrappling No-Gi rankings. Gianni went on to lose in the semis to an opponent that Paulo easily handled in the finals, however. Paulo also has a recent submission win over ADCC vet Kamal Wilks from GrappleFest 6. I think Paulo is a clear cut choice for No. 1 in this division.

Watch: Paulo Miyao wins IBJJF No-Gi Pans

Possible matchups with these seeds:

8 Matheus Gabriel vs 9 Jamil Hill-Taylor first round

Matheus Gabriel vs Jamil Hill-Taylor first round? Let's run it. The two had a heated match in the final of Pans this year, with Matheus winning but Jamil and his team feeling cheated by some of the calls near the end. Jamil sat out Worlds after surgery and Matheus won the weight Jamil was the reigning champ. This might become the next big rivalry at featherweight — I’m thinking like Rafa/Cobrinha — why not get an ADCC match in there as well? Winner gets the one seed Paulo Miyao most likely in the second round.

2 Gianni Grippo vs 7 Kennedy Maciel in the quarters

Another one that by coincidence worked out perfect for the ADCC bracketing, as teammates Grippo and Kennedy would meet second round as the 2 and 7 seeds anyway. A tough matchup for Kennedy if he wins his first (vs teammate Ruan Alvarenga) and then meets Grippo, but it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to pull off the win. The big question mark here would be who has better wrestling. We know what their IBJJF game is like. 

3 Augusto Tanquinho vs Nicky Ryan in the quarters

Crazy one here, a living legend vs one of the most talked-about up and comers in the sports. Tanquinho is 16 years older than Nicky and it’s a contrast in styles. Can Tanquinho keep his legs safe like he did against Eddie Cummings in 2016, and if so can Nicky win a positional game against the vet? This would be a crazy match to watch if it goes down.

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