It’s the eve of the KASAI Super Series and we’ve got one hell of a main event on our hands: the king of submission grappling Gordon Ryan is set to take on one of his toughest challenges yet in Joao Gabriel Rocha.

With all the preparations finished and an analysis of their respective strengths complete, we’re left with six crucial questions who’s answers will dictate the outcome of the match. 

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1. Can Joao Gabriel Take Gordon Down?

The obvious sub-question to this is if Gordon will even give Joao the opportunity to try, or will he simply pull guard from the opening engagement?

If Gordon does, in fact, choose to wrestle, we believe it’s Joao’s best chance at securing a favorable position and being able to impose his will in the match. Rocha is an incredibly strong and physical human being; he's used to mixing it up with the likes of Buchecha and has the grit and tenacity to possibly overwhelm the smaller Ryan if give the right avenue. 

2. Will The Match Make It To Overtime?

Joao may be looking to drag this match into the deep waters of overtime, which would mean that points are in effect – a scenario that possibly presenting his soundest path to victory.   

We're certain that Gordon is going to hunt for the finish from the start, but the urgency of overtime would certainly make things interesting.

3. Can Joao Avoid Getting Leglocked? 

The biggest threat looming over Joao's match with Gordon Ryan is that of the leglock. It's well known that Rocha has been finished four times at ADCC with heel hooks, and it's certainly true that Ryan is an expert at the attack. Gordon was also seen asking about the consequences of rolling out of bounds with a toehold submission at the rules meeting, so it's also possible the Danaher team as targeted that as a point of weakness in Joao's game.

Gordon finishes Mahamed Aly at ADCC with a heelhook.

4. Will Joao Come Out Like a Raging Beast? 

If Joao comes out guns blazing like we've seen in the past, we're in for one exciting ride regardless of the outcome. In this scenario, we expect HEAVY collar ties on the feet and grinding, merciless pressure passing that will try to neutralize Gordon's best weapons.

However, should Joao be nervous about the threat of leg locks and choose to engage from a distance, picking his attacks from a distance, we could see a strategic game that sees both men waiting to truly open up until overtime. 

5. What Will Joao's Guard Look Like Against Gordon's Passing? 

Gordon has displayed an increasing affinity for passing the guard since before ADCC 2017– he's managed to eat up some of the best defenses in the game like Romulo Barral and Yuri Simoes, and it's clear that he uses the threat of the pass negotiate his way to his opponent's back.

Our prediction is that Joao will likely want to avoid being on his back and that his best plan is to force a scramble back to the feet and / or top position as quickly as possible. 

6. How Will Gordon React To Joao's Size?

As mentioned above Joao is simply a BEAST of a man, and he knows how to use his strength as a weapon.  It would also be in Gordon's best interested to not assume that Joao is slow, because a simple review of any of Joao's matches with Buchecha, or bouts at ADCC, will show that he is in fact quite agile.